India is more likely to respond with military force to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan under PM Narendra Modi’s leadership, says a US report.
The annual threat assessment report – 2021 was prepared by the office of the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and sent to Congress on Tuesday. It identifies China’s “push for global power” as the number one threat to US interests followed Russia’s provocative actions and threats from Iran.
The Report, however, comes at a time when the two neigbouring countries are reportedly being in negotiations and talks to bury the hatchet and move. It is reported that the UAE is mediating between Pakistan and India for the regional peace, and some decisions have already been taken in this regard.
The report provides “nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence” assessment to “policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel,” Director DNI Avril Haines wrote in the introductory note.
While assessing possible threats from South Asia, the report warned that “under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations.”
The report noted that “heightened tensions” in the region “raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.”
But the report also said that “a general war” between India and Pakistan during 2021 was unlikely, but “crises between the two are likely to become more intense, risking an escalatory cycle.”
Another US intelligence report to Congress, released last week, had warned that India and Pakistan could go to a war in the next five years over real and perceived provocations.
The report pointed out that some regional conflicts – such as the fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria – had “direct implications for US security,” while “tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the world.”